This is part one of a two part series.
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Some countries are fueling wine growth. Some wineries are doing okay. Some producers are actually growing.
Keeping abreast of how to sell wine in a world that’s in a lot of flux is a full time job.
That’s why so many people in the industry flocked to hear wine data guru Danny Brager speak to an audience of leading wine producers at the annual Wine Market Council (WMC) conference held March 25 at COPIA in Napa.
The story represented a tale worlds apart from the usual handwringing over “younger people are drinking less,” replacing it with a data driven narrative of an industry that lost its way by not paying attention to where consumers (of all ages) are going. That is to white wines, lighter reds, single serving sizes, alternative formats, flavor-first wines and wine cocktails (Stella Rosa’s pineapple and chili wine, for example) and fast casual restaurants serving a variety of ethnic cuisines.
As if to highlight these trends, next door at the Oxbow Public Market, a bartender vigorously shook a cocktail shaker at Bar Lucia, in a corner across from the former location of the Oxbow Wine and Cheese merchant (which closed its doors on Dec. 31). Ilustrating Brager’s remarks, on its by the glass wine list, Bar Lucia serves frosés, five rosés, five sparkling wines, seven white wines–and one Napa Cab.
Reflections on “If You Build It, They Will Come”
Brager opened his talk with a slide from the 1989 movie Field of Dreams, and its famous motto, “If you build it, they will come.”
“Field of Dreams [the movie] was back in 1989…but I feel like this is kind of where we have been–in the past, right? We built the industry to make wonderful wine, and still do, and people came and bought it and we saw years and years and years of continual growth.
And the issue now that we’re living with is what happens if they don’t come. They’re not coming as many, and they’re not coming as frequently as they as they did. That’s the world we’re living in now.”
Brager went on to identify where the cart went off the road and where it could get back on track. The picture that emerged was a contrast in both dark and light.
“We’re living in a time when things are expensive,” he said, quoting data that groceries are now 30 percent more expensive than in 2020. And yet, “Somewhere between around 30% of brands seem to be growing.”
One All Organic Brand, Avaline, Showed Spectacular Growth
Brager’s list of the fastest growing wine brands puts the all organic, imports brand Avaline (sales of 33MM in 2023) in the top segment of brands of $10MM brands growing in double digits. (The order in which the names display below is simply alphabetical, Brager said). (More on what’s behind Avaline’s dramatic growth in a future post).
Avaline is the only all organic brand and is growing at double digits. (Used with permission.)
Availine is now available at Target, Sprouts, Whole Foods, Total Wine and many other outlets.
On Trend: The Explosion of Ready to Drink (RTDs), White Wines, Mini Sizes, Alternative Formats
The ready to drink cocktail wave is now up 23 percent since last year, he said, and has more than doubled since 2021, going from $1.5 billion in sales to $4 billion in the last 52 weeks, according to NIQ data. But wine has not played much of a role.
“It always amazes me that 27% of spirits volume now is accounted for by spirit based RTDs–bigger than vodka. It is bigger than whiskey and gin…I think there's lessons there to be learned from what's working in that segment.”
The pandemic brought about a revolutionary new category. Wine has yet to find its voice in it.
And although Barefoot and Josh wines each outsell Gallo’s hard seltzer High Noon, White Claw sales (though declining) dwarf them all.
But XXL wine, wine based RTDs BeatBox and Stella Rosa and spirits based BuzzBallz are outpacing traditional table wine in attracting sales from non-white and 21-34 year olds.
Price is one driver. “The price of a can of a spirit RTD is like $2.50,” he said. “If you have to do all the math, it’s probably $15 or $20 on the equivalent 750 basis,” adding that consumers probably do not go through all that math.
Brager also pays attention to flavor trends, noting that some products are supersizing flavors, while mini-sizing packaging.
“In my opinion, it's flavors driving a lot of that growth,” Brager said. “It's format–smaller containers. It's function, which could be the convenience of like an RTD. It's all mixed for me.”
“It’s also the container, it’s also the marketing. Some have done a really great job of creating communities–concerts, events and so on and so forth…When you look at some of the data on a consumer level, they have certainly shifted table wine, mainstream spirit dollars and spending to these sorts of brands,” he said.
“We need to be creative, innovative and solid, but perhaps there's an opportunity for us to play in that space.”
TO SEE THIS POST WITH THE ESSENTIAL CHARTS INCLUDED GO TO ORGANICWINEUNCORKED.SUBSTACK.COM
In Part Two: restaurant trends, varietal trends, format and packaging size trends…learn what’s winning.
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